Videos 05/06/2026 Oil shock absorbers – how long will they last? The overall impact of higher oil prices on the global economy has been limited so far – oil prices have fallen since April and the premium on dated Brent has been largely eliminated Read More
Videos 29/05/2026 Global equities – overvalued or overbought? Global equities have continued to post gains in recent months in spite of several significant challenges, partly because of AI-optimism Read More
Videos 22/05/2026 Global bonds – buying opportunity or normalisation? The macroeconomic effects of the oil shock have so far been relatively limited in the major developed economies. Read More
Videos 30/04/2026 Dollar debasement and diversification The dollar is currently overvalued by approximately 20% against other major currencies according to our models. Read More
Videos 24/04/2026 The war time Fed Closure of the Strait of Hormuz implies loss of roughly 14% of oil supply probably for another month. Read More
Videos 17/04/2026 Offsetting global shocks drive asset markets The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed while talks and the ceasefire continue in the background. Read More
Videos 10/04/2026 The economics of Iran’s toll booth strategy The announcement of the two-week ceasefire in the US-Iran war led to relief in markets and an initial steep drop in the price of oil. Read More
Videos 06/02/2026 The transition to Warsh Several obstacles could complicate and delay the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair. Read More
Videos 14/11/2025 Deeper Dive – AI: May the force be with us Stock market valuations appear overstretched on traditional metrics such as the Shiller CAPE ratio. Read More
Videos 13/06/2025 Deeper Dive: Fiscal policy and term premia Short rate expectations are fundamentally unobserved, complicating term premium estimation. Read More
Videos 18/02/2025 Deeper Dive: Trump’s plan for a sovereign wealth fund President Trump has proposed the creation of a large US sovereign wealth fund (SWF), partly funded by tariff revenue. Read More
Videos 02/01/2025 Deeper Dive- Trump’s tariffs: revenue, restriction and reciprocation The potential economic impacts of tariffs include lower growth and higher inflation. Read More
Videos 11/10/2024 Gradual Powell – but Trump lies in wait The market is now pricing in higher rates than before for the middle of 2025, reflecting a more robust labour market. Read More
Videos 19/07/2024 Deeper Dive: China at the third plenum The Third Plenum sets out the policy direction for China for the next five years. Read More
Videos 12/07/2024 Deeper Dive: The fiscal crisis in Brazil Brazil has experienced recent volatility in its markets, including a weaker currency. Read More
Videos 21/06/2024 Deeper Dive: Strains in the Fifth Republic The upcoming elections in France have the potential to significantly impact markets and test EU structures. Read More
Videos 18/04/2024 Deeper Dive: R star and the bond market The concept of R-star, the equilibrium interest rate, and its importance in the bond market. Read More
Gavyn Davies 16/01/2024 US corporate sector remains in a strong financial condition Andy Bevan, Fulcrum’s Economic Advisor and fixed income specialist, has prepared this note on the financial condition of the US corporate sector. Read More