Videos 12/06/2026 Using LLMs to identify market narratives Large Language Models (LLMs) can identify, track, and quantify economic narratives, helping to interpret emerging macroeconomic shocks. Read More
Investment Insights 23/04/2026 The case for reducing US equity overweight: Concentration, valuation, and the coming regime shift Global equity portfolios are more concentrated in US stocks than at almost any point in history. The US now accounts for roughly 65 percent of the MSCI All Country World Index, a weight that has roughly doubled since the early 1990s and is more than four times its share of global GDP. Read More
Investment Insights 06/02/2026 The transition to Warsh: Bumpy road to a better place? Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination could reshape US monetary policy in ways unseen for a generation. The article examine the likely trajectory of his confirmation, the recent evolution of his policy stance, and the key institutional and operational issues that may define his tenure. Read More
Investment Insights 15/12/2025 US Employment: breakevens, benchmarking and blindspots A model-based framework that cuts through noisy US employment data to deliver revision-consistent signals for breakevens, benchmarking and data blindspots. Read More
Investment Insights 29/08/2025 The latest evidence on tariff incidence Since early 2025, US trade policy has shifted sharply toward protectionism, marked by a broad set of tariffs imposed under emergency and trade-related authorities. These measures, justified by national security and industrial strategy, are wider in scope and more volatile than previous episodes, and have seen frequent reversals and exemptions. Read More
Investment Insights 24/06/2025 US tariffs and uncertainty: a structural perspective In this note we examine the macroeconomic implications of a major shift in US trade policy, marked by a sharp increase in tariff rates and heightened economic policy uncertainty. Read More
Investment Insights 19/03/2025 Global bond yields: unravelling the drivers of recent volatility Global bond yields rose sharply from September 2024 to January 2025, driven mainly by higher term premia – the extra return investors require for holding longer-term bonds. Since then, roughly half of this increase has reversed as term premia have declined. Read More
Videos 17/01/2025 Trump’s Tariffs – A Challenge to the Global Economic Order and to Orthodox Economics Gavyn Davies answers recent client questions, including global responses to Trump tariffs and potential economic impacts and broader implications of tariffs on policy and markets. Read More
Gavyn Davies 15/01/2025 Trump’s tariffs – a challenge to the global economic order and to orthodox economics The Trump administration’s prospective tariff policies, though not without historical precedent, signify a pivotal inflection point in US trade and economic strategy, reflecting a combination of economic protectionism and evolving geopolitical ambitions. Read More
Videos 09/01/2025 Tariffs: Hawks and Doves in the White House President Trump’s economic team are united behind the need for higher tariff. Read More
Videos 13/09/2024 Harris “debate win” may not be enough The US presidential race is tight, with polls showing narrow margins. Read More
Videos 12/07/2024 Deeper Dive: The fiscal crisis in Brazil Brazil has experienced recent volatility in its markets, including a weaker currency. Read More
