06/12/2024 Looming threat of tariffs The appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary has reassured markets regarding budget deficits. Read More
22/11/2024 Sensible Trump and moderate Powell? Markets are reassured by Trump’s potential appointments in key economic posts. Read More
08/11/2024 President Trump meets Chair Powell In this “Fireside Chat”, Gavyn Davies, Founder and Executive Chairman and Andy Bevan, Partner and Economic Advisor, discuss the following:… Read More
19/07/2024 Deeper Dive: China at the third plenum The Third Plenum sets out the policy direction for China for the next five years. Read More
12/07/2024 Deeper Dive: The fiscal crisis in Brazil Brazil has experienced recent volatility in its markets, including a weaker currency. Read More
11/07/2024 Insights from Fulcrum’s 20th Anniversary: Navigating Global Dynamics Recorded during Fulcrum’s 20th-anniversary event, Gavyn Davies, and Stephanie Flanders, debate some of the major topics that are likely to impact the financial markets over the coming months/years. Read More
21/06/2024 Deeper Dive: Strains in the Fifth Republic The upcoming elections in France have the potential to significantly impact markets and test EU structures. Read More
18/04/2024 Deeper Dive: R star and the bond market The concept of R-star, the equilibrium interest rate, and its importance in the bond market. Read More
21/03/2024 One dot makes the difference Gavyn’s instant view of the Fed’s recent decisions and guidance Read More
24/01/2024 Central banks say there is “no rush” as no landing risk rises Markets have shifted slightly away from a soft-landing scenario for the US and global economies Read More
09/01/2024 The impact of the Taiwanese presidential election on geopolitical risk Global asset markets have entered the new year continuing to anticipate a soft landing in the US, involving significant reductions in policy rates in the major advanced economies, excluding Japan. Read More
19/12/2023 What caused the Fed’s sudden lurch towards a dovish bias? Global asset markets have moved dramatically towards a soft landing in the US, and this has dragged other developed markets in the same direction Read More
24/11/2023 The rising importance of financial conditions for Fed policy Global asset markets have increased the probability attached to a soft landing, at least in the US, over the past month Read More
13/11/2023 US recession risks – The Fulcrum and Sahm Models Global asset markets have been heavily influenced in recent weeks by four important public statements Read More
24/10/2023 Why Did Powell Change His Guidance? Markets have recently been navigating significant changes in news flow, involving geopolitical risks Read More
11/10/2023 The Fed’s latest thinking on R* and the Term Premium The performance of asset markets since the end of July has been dominated by a very large up-trend in real bond yields, with some sell-off in equity prices. Read More
17/08/2023 Yellen Reforms and GDPNow Raise US growth optimism In the last edition of this series, we suggested that growth in the global economy might be slowing down, led by weakness in the EU and China. Read More
26/07/2023 Advanced Economies Slowing? Flash PMI releases for the advanced economies in July indicate that service sectors are now generally slowing down, but there are encouraging signs that US manufacturing may be stabilising after months of weakness. Read More
20/07/2023 Hymans Robertson Podcast – Capital markets mid-year update A discussion of the key market events of 2023 so far, a look at what the rest of the year might hold, and a discussion on the potential risks that could knock things off course in the short term. Read More
19/07/2023 North Atlantic Drift There are increasingly convincing signs of declining headline and core inflation in the US, while the labour market remains very robust and recession risks appear to be falling further. Read More
12/07/2023 Renewed Bond Sell-Off Driven by Continued Strength in US Labour Market Global bond yields rose significantly in most government markets last week. US yields are now close to 15-year highs. Read More
05/07/2023 New Fed Research Suggests That US Economic Slowdown is Likely in 2023 H2 The US economy has continued to defy those who have been predicting an imminent recession. Read More
28/06/2023 Equities in 2023- a tougher second half, especially in the EU? Equity markets have dipped slightly in recent days, but only after surging in mid-June above any levels seen since the major bear phase took hold in 2022. Read More
22/06/2023 Fiscal and Monetary Policy Regimes After the Pandemic We are receiving questions about the future of the monetary and policy regimes after the pandemic shocks, as well as the impact of any changes in these regimes on financial markets. Read More
07/06/2023 Markets remain in a supply-friendly regime Sell in May and go away” is a tired old cliché among investment managers, but that does not automatically make it wrong. Will it prove correct this year? Read More
12/05/2023 Podcast: Macro Hive Series on Inflation, Asset Allocation and ChatGPT In this Macro Hive Podcast series, our Chairman, Gavyn Davies, discusses a number of topics including asset allocation; ChatGPT; current market Views; and changes to investment approach since COVID. Read More
19/04/2023 Podcast: Behind the Balance Sheet In this Behind the Balance Sheet Podcast, our Chairman, Gavyn Davies, talks about investing, and about financial services; but also covers public service broadcasting, streaming and politics. Read More
25/04/2022 Global markets driven by a huge real monetary shock Markets have continued to be driven by major macro-economic shocks in April. Read More
30/03/2022 Has the FED abandoned its average inflation target? After years of deliberation, the new framework was introduced in 2020 to cope with the dominant problem faced in the previous decade. Read More
17/02/2022 Podcast: The Money Maze In this Money Maze Podcast, our Chairman, Gavyn Davies, discusses why the inflationary pressures of today aren’t quite comparable to the 1970s… Read More
31/01/2022 Fiscal Policy, Inflation and the Federal Reserve The outlook for global financial markets in 2022 will obviously hinge greatly on the behaviour of inflation, especially in the US. Read More
06/01/2022 The pandemic has marked a turning point for asset markets In coming years, asset allocators will need to be much more active when macro shocks occur and will need to work far harder to preserve absolute returns for their clients. Read More
11/01/2021 Bitcoin has ambitions for gold’s role Investors in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have enjoyed a phenomenal run, but they are now worried that Janet Yellen’s arrival as US Treasury secretary may herald a new era of hostility from regulators and central banks towards what boosters call “libertarian” forms of digital money. Read More
18/12/2020 The risks of the global Covid debt bridge Early in the Covid-19 pandemic, it became clear that the global economy would require a massive extension of public and private debt to avoid an extraordinarily deep and persistent depression. Read More
15/12/2020 As Covid optimism grows, investors seek to hedge against inflation risk Economic forecasters have been scrambling since mid-year to upgrade their real GDP growth projections once the current waves of the virus are controlled. Read More
16/11/2020 Democracies that failed the Covid test will struggle on climate change The second wave of the pandemic continues to gather pace in Europe and the United States, but the optimistic news about vaccines has trumped these worries in the minds of investors. Read More
06/10/2020 Global goods sector drives economic recovery The spectacular V-shaped recovery in the global economy has probably now come to an end with much more normal growth to follow. Read More
22/09/2020 Expect long-term economic scarring from Covid-19 As winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, new Covid-19 infections — which are feared to rise in cold weather — continue their inexorable worldwide march. Read More
09/09/2020 The Fed risks higher inflation to boost jobs The new framework for US monetary policy announced at the Jackson Hole symposium in August is a watershed event, for both the practice of macroeconomic policy, and the theory that lies behind it. Read More
20/07/2020 US Covid-19 surge could trigger a double-dip recession The relentless rise in the number of new US Covid-19 infections, which is being followed by increased hospitalisation rates and fatalities in the worst affected states, suggests that Anthony Fauci of the White House coronavirus task force was justified when he recently described the deteriorating situation as a “perfect storm”. Read More
14/07/2020 Central banks expand their role to address the crisis Before the economic crash caused by the coronavirus pandemic in March, it had been widely assumed that central banks would be largely impotent in the face of a renewed recession. Read More
24/06/2020 The safe-asset shortage after Covid-19 One of the long-term consequences of the 2008 financial crisis was a lack of safe assets that could be used by institutions to store their wealth, meet regulatory requirements and provide collateral to borrow additional funds. Read More
23/06/2020 Will public debt be a problem when the Covid-19 crisis is over? There is unanimity about macroeconomic policy for now, but not about an exit strategy. Read More
06/06/2020 The effects of Covid-19 could deepen secular stagnation On top of these deflationary trends, the Covid-19 lockdowns have caused a seismic shock in all the big economies. Read More
26/05/2020 Penny-pinching consumers could spell trouble for recovery Attempting to make sense of this recession right now is like peering though a thick fog. Read More
