Videos 12/06/2026 Using LLMs to identify market narratives Large Language Models (LLMs) can identify, track, and quantify economic narratives, helping to interpret emerging macroeconomic shocks. Read More
Videos 05/06/2026 Oil shock absorbers – how long will they last? The overall impact of higher oil prices on the global economy has been limited so far – oil prices have fallen since April and the premium on dated Brent has been largely eliminated Read More
Videos 29/05/2026 Global equities – overvalued or overbought? Global equities have continued to post gains in recent months in spite of several significant challenges, partly because of AI-optimism Read More
Videos 22/05/2026 Global bonds – buying opportunity or normalisation? The macroeconomic effects of the oil shock have so far been relatively limited in the major developed economies. Read More
Videos 08/05/2026 AI eats the global market The AI infrastructure providers remain supply-constrained in physical capacity and continue to raise capex plans in response to projections of increasing demand. Read More
Videos 30/04/2026 Dollar debasement and diversification The dollar is currently overvalued by approximately 20% against other major currencies according to our models. Read More
Videos 24/04/2026 The war time Fed Closure of the Strait of Hormuz implies loss of roughly 14% of oil supply probably for another month. Read More
Videos 17/04/2026 Offsetting global shocks drive asset markets The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed while talks and the ceasefire continue in the background. Read More
Videos 10/04/2026 The economics of Iran’s toll booth strategy The announcement of the two-week ceasefire in the US-Iran war led to relief in markets and an initial steep drop in the price of oil. Read More
Investment Insights 06/02/2026 The transition to Warsh: Bumpy road to a better place? Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination could reshape US monetary policy in ways unseen for a generation. The article examine the likely trajectory of his confirmation, the recent evolution of his policy stance, and the key institutional and operational issues that may define his tenure. Read More
Videos 06/02/2026 The transition to Warsh Several obstacles could complicate and delay the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair. Read More
Videos 14/11/2025 Deeper Dive – AI: May the force be with us Stock market valuations appear overstretched on traditional metrics such as the Shiller CAPE ratio. Read More
Gavyn Davies 31/03/2025 Uncertainty: tariffs and the Fed Distinguishing between “risk,” “uncertainty,” and “radical uncertainty” is crucial for both economic theory and its implications for markets, policy, and financial stability. Read More
Videos 18/02/2025 Deeper Dive: Trump’s plan for a sovereign wealth fund President Trump has proposed the creation of a large US sovereign wealth fund (SWF), partly funded by tariff revenue. Read More
Videos 17/01/2025 Trump’s Tariffs – A Challenge to the Global Economic Order and to Orthodox Economics Gavyn Davies answers recent client questions, including global responses to Trump tariffs and potential economic impacts and broader implications of tariffs on policy and markets. Read More
Gavyn Davies 15/01/2025 Trump’s tariffs – a challenge to the global economic order and to orthodox economics The Trump administration’s prospective tariff policies, though not without historical precedent, signify a pivotal inflection point in US trade and economic strategy, reflecting a combination of economic protectionism and evolving geopolitical ambitions. Read More
Videos 09/01/2025 Tariffs: Hawks and Doves in the White House President Trump’s economic team are united behind the need for higher tariff. Read More
Videos 02/01/2025 Deeper Dive- Trump’s tariffs: revenue, restriction and reciprocation The potential economic impacts of tariffs include lower growth and higher inflation. Read More
Videos 11/10/2024 Gradual Powell – but Trump lies in wait The market is now pricing in higher rates than before for the middle of 2025, reflecting a more robust labour market. Read More
Videos 13/09/2024 Harris “debate win” may not be enough The US presidential race is tight, with polls showing narrow margins. Read More
Videos 19/07/2024 Deeper Dive: China at the third plenum The Third Plenum sets out the policy direction for China for the next five years. Read More
Videos 12/07/2024 Deeper Dive: The fiscal crisis in Brazil Brazil has experienced recent volatility in its markets, including a weaker currency. Read More
Videos & Podcasts 11/07/2024 Insights from Fulcrum’s 20th Anniversary: Navigating Global Dynamics Recorded during Fulcrum’s 20th-anniversary event, Gavyn Davies, and Stephanie Flanders, debate some of the major topics that are likely to impact the financial markets over the coming months/years. Read More
Videos 21/06/2024 Deeper Dive: Strains in the Fifth Republic The upcoming elections in France have the potential to significantly impact markets and test EU structures. Read More
Videos 18/04/2024 Deeper Dive: R star and the bond market The concept of R-star, the equilibrium interest rate, and its importance in the bond market. Read More
Gavyn Davies 21/03/2024 One dot makes the difference Gavyn’s instant view of the Fed’s recent decisions and guidance Read More
Gavyn Davies 24/01/2024 Central banks say there is “no rush” as no landing risk rises Markets have shifted slightly away from a soft-landing scenario for the US and global economies Read More
Gavyn Davies 09/01/2024 The impact of the Taiwanese presidential election on geopolitical risk Global asset markets have entered the new year continuing to anticipate a soft landing in the US, involving significant reductions in policy rates in the major advanced economies, excluding Japan. Read More
Gavyn Davies 19/12/2023 What caused the Fed’s sudden lurch towards a dovish bias? Global asset markets have moved dramatically towards a soft landing in the US, and this has dragged other developed markets in the same direction Read More
Gavyn Davies 24/11/2023 The rising importance of financial conditions for Fed policy Global asset markets have increased the probability attached to a soft landing, at least in the US, over the past month Read More
Gavyn Davies 13/11/2023 US recession risks – The Fulcrum and Sahm Models Global asset markets have been heavily influenced in recent weeks by four important public statements Read More
Gavyn Davies 24/10/2023 Why Did Powell Change His Guidance? Markets have recently been navigating significant changes in news flow, involving geopolitical risks Read More
Gavyn Davies 11/10/2023 The Fed’s latest thinking on R* and the Term Premium The performance of asset markets since the end of July has been dominated by a very large up-trend in real bond yields, with some sell-off in equity prices. Read More
Gavyn Davies 17/08/2023 Yellen Reforms and GDPNow Raise US growth optimism In the last edition of this series, we suggested that growth in the global economy might be slowing down, led by weakness in the EU and China. Read More
Gavyn Davies 26/07/2023 Advanced Economies Slowing? Flash PMI releases for the advanced economies in July indicate that service sectors are now generally slowing down, but there are encouraging signs that US manufacturing may be stabilising after months of weakness. Read More
Videos & Podcasts 20/07/2023 Hymans Robertson Podcast – Capital markets mid-year update A discussion of the key market events of 2023 so far, a look at what the rest of the year might hold, and a discussion on the potential risks that could knock things off course in the short term. Read More
Gavyn Davies 19/07/2023 North Atlantic Drift There are increasingly convincing signs of declining headline and core inflation in the US, while the labour market remains very robust and recession risks appear to be falling further. Read More
Gavyn Davies 12/07/2023 Renewed Bond Sell-Off Driven by Continued Strength in US Labour Market Global bond yields rose significantly in most government markets last week. US yields are now close to 15-year highs. Read More
Gavyn Davies 05/07/2023 New Fed Research Suggests That US Economic Slowdown is Likely in 2023 H2 The US economy has continued to defy those who have been predicting an imminent recession. Read More
Gavyn Davies 28/06/2023 Equities in 2023- a tougher second half, especially in the EU? Equity markets have dipped slightly in recent days, but only after surging in mid-June above any levels seen since the major bear phase took hold in 2022. Read More
Gavyn Davies 22/06/2023 Fiscal and Monetary Policy Regimes After the Pandemic We are receiving questions about the future of the monetary and policy regimes after the pandemic shocks, as well as the impact of any changes in these regimes on financial markets. Read More
Gavyn Davies 07/06/2023 Markets remain in a supply-friendly regime Sell in May and go away” is a tired old cliché among investment managers, but that does not automatically make it wrong. Will it prove correct this year? Read More
Videos & Podcasts 12/05/2023 Podcast: Macro Hive Series on Inflation, Asset Allocation and ChatGPT In this Macro Hive Podcast series, our Chairman, Gavyn Davies, discusses a number of topics including asset allocation; ChatGPT; current market Views; and changes to investment approach since COVID. Read More
Videos & Podcasts 19/04/2023 Podcast: Behind the Balance Sheet In this Behind the Balance Sheet Podcast, our Chairman, Gavyn Davies, talks about investing, and about financial services; but also covers public service broadcasting, streaming and politics. Read More
Gavyn Davies 25/04/2022 Global markets driven by a huge real monetary shock Markets have continued to be driven by major macro-economic shocks in April. Read More
Gavyn Davies 30/03/2022 Has the FED abandoned its average inflation target? After years of deliberation, the new framework was introduced in 2020 to cope with the dominant problem faced in the previous decade. Read More
Podcasts 17/02/2022 Podcast: The Money Maze In this Money Maze Podcast, our Chairman, Gavyn Davies, discusses why the inflationary pressures of today aren’t quite comparable to the 1970s… Read More
Gavyn Davies 31/01/2022 Fiscal Policy, Inflation and the Federal Reserve The outlook for global financial markets in 2022 will obviously hinge greatly on the behaviour of inflation, especially in the US. Read More
Gavyn Davies 06/01/2022 The pandemic has marked a turning point for asset markets In coming years, asset allocators will need to be much more active when macro shocks occur and will need to work far harder to preserve absolute returns for their clients. Read More
Gavyn Davies 11/01/2021 Bitcoin has ambitions for gold’s role Investors in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have enjoyed a phenomenal run, but they are now worried that Janet Yellen’s arrival as US Treasury secretary may herald a new era of hostility from regulators and central banks towards what boosters call “libertarian” forms of digital money. Read More
Gavyn Davies 18/12/2020 The risks of the global Covid debt bridge Early in the Covid-19 pandemic, it became clear that the global economy would require a massive extension of public and private debt to avoid an extraordinarily deep and persistent depression. Read More
Gavyn Davies 15/12/2020 As Covid optimism grows, investors seek to hedge against inflation risk Economic forecasters have been scrambling since mid-year to upgrade their real GDP growth projections once the current waves of the virus are controlled. Read More
Gavyn Davies 16/11/2020 Democracies that failed the Covid test will struggle on climate change The second wave of the pandemic continues to gather pace in Europe and the United States, but the optimistic news about vaccines has trumped these worries in the minds of investors. Read More
Gavyn Davies 06/10/2020 Global goods sector drives economic recovery The spectacular V-shaped recovery in the global economy has probably now come to an end with much more normal growth to follow. Read More
Gavyn Davies 22/09/2020 Expect long-term economic scarring from Covid-19 As winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, new Covid-19 infections — which are feared to rise in cold weather — continue their inexorable worldwide march. Read More
Gavyn Davies 09/09/2020 The Fed risks higher inflation to boost jobs The new framework for US monetary policy announced at the Jackson Hole symposium in August is a watershed event, for both the practice of macroeconomic policy, and the theory that lies behind it. Read More
Gavyn Davies 20/07/2020 US Covid-19 surge could trigger a double-dip recession The relentless rise in the number of new US Covid-19 infections, which is being followed by increased hospitalisation rates and fatalities in the worst affected states, suggests that Anthony Fauci of the White House coronavirus task force was justified when he recently described the deteriorating situation as a “perfect storm”. Read More
Gavyn Davies 14/07/2020 Central banks expand their role to address the crisis Before the economic crash caused by the coronavirus pandemic in March, it had been widely assumed that central banks would be largely impotent in the face of a renewed recession. Read More
Gavyn Davies 24/06/2020 The safe-asset shortage after Covid-19 One of the long-term consequences of the 2008 financial crisis was a lack of safe assets that could be used by institutions to store their wealth, meet regulatory requirements and provide collateral to borrow additional funds. Read More
Gavyn Davies 23/06/2020 Will public debt be a problem when the Covid-19 crisis is over? There is unanimity about macroeconomic policy for now, but not about an exit strategy. Read More
Gavyn Davies 06/06/2020 The effects of Covid-19 could deepen secular stagnation On top of these deflationary trends, the Covid-19 lockdowns have caused a seismic shock in all the big economies. Read More
Gavyn Davies 26/05/2020 Penny-pinching consumers could spell trouble for recovery Attempting to make sense of this recession right now is like peering though a thick fog. Read More
