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Our Capabilities
- - - Our Capabilities
      
      Three pillars of investing
- - - Discretionary Strategies
      
      Identifying and investing in uncorrelated investment strategies.
      Explore More
  - - Alternative Solutions
      
      Providing innovative exposure to underrepresented assets.
      Explore More
  - - Quantitative Strategies
      
      Bringing together the insights of macroeconomics and quantitative finance.
      Explore More
Insights
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      Explore Our Research and Insights
- - - Videos & Podcasts
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  - - Gavyn Davies
      Explore More
  - - Investment Insights
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  - - Research
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- - - View All Insights
About Us
- - - About Us
      
      An independent asset manager with a strong focus on research
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Insights Category: Gavyn Davies

31/03/2025

Uncertainty: tariffs and the Fed

Distinguishing between “risk,” “uncertainty,” and “radical uncertainty” is crucial for both economic theory and its implications for markets, policy, and financial stability.

15/01/2025

Trump’s tariffs – a challenge to the global economic order and to orthodox economics

The Trump administration’s prospective tariff policies, though not without historical precedent, signify a pivotal inflection point in US trade and economic strategy, reflecting a combination of economic protectionism and evolving geopolitical ambitions.

21/03/2024

One dot makes the difference

Gavyn’s instant view of the Fed’s recent decisions and guidance

24/01/2024

Central banks say there is “no rush” as no landing risk rises

Markets have shifted slightly away from a soft-landing scenario for the US and global economies

16/01/2024

US corporate sector remains in a strong financial condition

Andy Bevan, Fulcrum’s Economic Advisor and fixed income specialist, has prepared this note on the financial condition of the US corporate sector.

09/01/2024

The impact of the Taiwanese presidential election on geopolitical risk

Global asset markets have entered the new year continuing to anticipate a soft landing in the US, involving significant reductions in policy rates in the major advanced economies, excluding Japan.

19/12/2023

What caused the Fed’s sudden lurch towards a dovish bias?

Global asset markets have moved dramatically towards a soft landing in the US, and this has dragged other developed markets in the same direction

24/11/2023

The rising importance of financial conditions for Fed policy

Global asset markets have increased the probability attached to a soft landing, at least in the US, over the past month

13/11/2023

US recession risks – The Fulcrum and Sahm Models

Global asset markets have been heavily influenced in recent weeks by four important public statements

24/10/2023

Why Did Powell Change His Guidance?

Markets have recently been navigating significant changes in news flow, involving geopolitical risks

11/10/2023

The Fed’s latest thinking on R* and the Term Premium

The performance of asset markets since the end of July has been dominated by a very large up-trend in real bond yields, with some sell-off in equity prices.

17/08/2023

Yellen Reforms and GDPNow Raise US growth optimism

In the last edition of this series, we suggested that growth in the global economy might be slowing down, led by weakness in the EU and China.

26/07/2023

Advanced Economies Slowing?

Flash PMI releases for the advanced economies in July indicate that service sectors are now generally slowing down, but there are encouraging signs that US manufacturing may be stabilising after months of weakness.

19/07/2023

North Atlantic Drift

There are increasingly convincing signs of declining headline and core inflation in the US, while the labour market remains very robust and recession risks appear to be falling further.

12/07/2023

Renewed Bond Sell-Off Driven by Continued Strength in US Labour Market

Global bond yields rose significantly in most government markets last week. US yields are now close to 15-year highs.

05/07/2023

New Fed Research Suggests That US Economic Slowdown is Likely in 2023 H2

The US economy has continued to defy those who have been predicting an imminent recession.

28/06/2023

Equities in 2023- a tougher second half, especially in the EU?

Equity markets have dipped slightly in recent days, but only after surging in mid-June above any levels seen since the major bear phase took hold in 2022.

22/06/2023

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Regimes After the Pandemic

We are receiving questions about the future of the monetary and policy regimes after the pandemic shocks, as well as the impact of any changes in these regimes on financial markets.

07/06/2023

Markets remain in a supply-friendly regime

Sell in May and go away” is a tired old cliché among investment managers, but that does not automatically make it wrong. Will it prove correct this year?

25/04/2022

Global markets driven by a huge real monetary shock

Markets have continued to be driven by major macro-economic shocks in April.

30/03/2022

Has the FED abandoned its average inflation target?

After years of deliberation, the new framework was introduced in 2020 to cope with the dominant problem faced in the previous decade.

31/01/2022

Fiscal Policy, Inflation and the Federal Reserve

The outlook for global financial markets in 2022 will obviously hinge greatly on the behaviour of inflation, especially in the US.

06/01/2022

The pandemic has marked a turning point for asset markets

In coming years, asset allocators will need to be much more active when macro shocks occur and will need to work far harder to preserve absolute returns for their clients.

11/01/2021

Bitcoin has ambitions for gold’s role

Investors in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have enjoyed a phenomenal run, but they are now worried that Janet Yellen’s arrival as US Treasury secretary may herald a new era of hostility from regulators and central banks towards what boosters call “libertarian” forms of digital money.

18/12/2020

The risks of the global Covid debt bridge

Early in the Covid-19 pandemic, it became clear that the global economy would require a massive extension of public and private debt to avoid an extraordinarily deep and persistent depression.

15/12/2020

As Covid optimism grows, investors seek to hedge against inflation risk

Economic forecasters have been scrambling since mid-year to upgrade their real GDP growth projections once the current waves of the virus are controlled.

16/11/2020

Democracies that failed the Covid test will struggle on climate change

The second wave of the pandemic continues to gather pace in Europe and the United States, but the optimistic news about vaccines has trumped these worries in the minds of investors.

06/10/2020

Global goods sector drives economic recovery

The spectacular V-shaped recovery in the global economy has probably now come to an end with much more normal growth to follow.

22/09/2020

Expect long-term economic scarring from Covid-19

As winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, new Covid-19 infections — which are feared to rise in cold weather — continue their inexorable worldwide march.

09/09/2020

The Fed risks higher inflation to boost jobs

The new framework for US monetary policy announced at the Jackson Hole symposium in August is a watershed event, for both the practice of macroeconomic policy, and the theory that lies behind it.

20/07/2020

US Covid-19 surge could trigger a double-dip recession

The relentless rise in the number of new US Covid-19 infections, which is being followed by increased hospitalisation rates and fatalities in the worst affected states, suggests that Anthony Fauci of the White House coronavirus task force was justified when he recently described the deteriorating situation as a “perfect storm”.

14/07/2020

Central banks expand their role to address the crisis

Before the economic crash caused by the coronavirus pandemic in March, it had been widely assumed that central banks would be largely impotent in the face of a renewed recession.

24/06/2020

The safe-asset shortage after Covid-19

One of the long-term consequences of the 2008 financial crisis was a lack of safe assets that could be used by institutions to store their wealth, meet regulatory requirements and provide collateral to borrow additional funds.

23/06/2020

Will public debt be a problem when the Covid-19 crisis is over?

There is unanimity about macroeconomic policy for now, but not about an exit strategy.

06/06/2020

The effects of Covid-19 could deepen secular stagnation

On top of these deflationary trends, the Covid-19 lockdowns have caused a seismic shock in all the big economies.

26/05/2020

Penny-pinching consumers could spell trouble for recovery

Attempting to make sense of this recession right now is like peering though a thick fog.

Welcome to Fulcrum.

Our Capabilities

Three pillars of investing

Discretionary Strategies

Alternative Solutions

Quantitative Strategies

Insights

Explore Our Research and Insights

Videos & Podcasts

Gavyn Davies

Investment Insights

Research

About Us

An independent asset manager with a strong focus on research

Our Company

Investing With Us

News & Media

Careers