13/06/2025 The tariff shock ain’t over till it’s over The FOMC meeting next week will provide new economic projections, and the recent data show a muted impact from tariffs on growth and inflation. Read More
13/06/2025 On the Horizon – June Equities rallied on positioning unwind and fading worst-case trade fears. Read More
05/06/2025 Beautiful bill or “disgusting abomination”? The budget process faces significant sticking points in the Senate. Read More
30/05/2025 Great Expectations Recent court rulings may affect tariff implementation, and the Trump administration is exploring legal avenues for tariffs. Read More
23/05/2025 The beautiful bill produces an ugly debt ratio Bonds have been the focal point of market discussions recently. Read More
16/05/2025 The Trump reprieve The recent tariff reductions have reduced left tail risks for the US economy. Read More
15/05/2025 On the Horizon – May Oil prices are dropping due to increased supply, not just demand. Read More
09/05/2025 Fed and ECB face different tariff shocks The US economy may face recession due to tariffs and inflation in the US is projected to rise significantly over coming months. Read More
07/05/2025 Absolute return investing, market timing and the role of luck In this episode, we delve into the philosophy of absolute return investing, we talk about the role of skill versus luck, the use of Nowcasting, learnings from the COVID-19 pandemic and the ever controversial topic of market timing. Read More
02/05/2025 The forgotten fiscal fundamentals The US fiscal reconciliation process is advancing, even as focus stays on tariffs. Read More
03/04/2025 On the Horizon – April Tariff regime appears harsher than worst-case forecasts and a global slowdown expected if tariffs persist. Read More
11/03/2025 On the Horizon – March 2025 Higher tariffs likely to drive stagflation in the US. Read More
18/02/2025 Deeper Dive: Trump’s plan for a sovereign wealth fund President Trump has proposed the creation of a large US sovereign wealth fund (SWF), partly funded by tariff revenue. Read More
07/02/2025 On the Horizon – February 2025 DeepSeek’s R1 model significantly reduces AI training costs. Read More
17/01/2025 Trump’s Tariffs – A Challenge to the Global Economic Order and to Orthodox Economics Gavyn Davies answers recent client questions, including global responses to Trump tariffs and potential economic impacts and broader implications of tariffs on policy and markets. Read More
14/01/2025 On the Horizon – January 2025 Cautious Equities: stretched S&P 500 valuations and heavy tech capex with delayed revenues. Read More
09/01/2025 Tariffs: Hawks and Doves in the White House President Trump’s economic team are united behind the need for higher tariff. Read More
02/01/2025 Deeper Dive- Trump’s tariffs: revenue, restriction and reciprocation The potential economic impacts of tariffs include lower growth and higher inflation. Read More
27/11/2024 Unlocking AI’s power in finance with Fawaz Chaudhry In this episode of Trading Tomorrow, we explore the groundbreaking ways artificial intelligence is reshaping finance with insights from Fawaz Chaudhry, the Head of Equities. Read More
14/10/2024 Q3 2024 Investment Update The market events and trends that have dominated in Q3 and the impact these had on performance. Read More
11/10/2024 Gradual Powell – but Trump lies in wait The market is now pricing in higher rates than before for the middle of 2025, reflecting a more robust labour market. Read More
13/09/2024 Harris “debate win” may not be enough The US presidential race is tight, with polls showing narrow margins. Read More
19/07/2024 Deeper Dive: China at the third plenum The Third Plenum sets out the policy direction for China for the next five years. Read More
12/07/2024 Deeper Dive: The fiscal crisis in Brazil Brazil has experienced recent volatility in its markets, including a weaker currency. Read More
11/07/2024 Insights from Fulcrum’s 20th Anniversary: Navigating Global Dynamics Recorded during Fulcrum’s 20th-anniversary event, Gavyn Davies, and Stephanie Flanders, debate some of the major topics that are likely to impact the financial markets over the coming months/years. Read More
10/07/2024 Q2 2024 Investment Update The trends driving performance in Q2 and outlook going into the second half of the year. Read More
21/06/2024 Deeper Dive: Strains in the Fifth Republic The upcoming elections in France have the potential to significantly impact markets and test EU structures. Read More
18/04/2024 Deeper Dive: R star and the bond market The concept of R-star, the equilibrium interest rate, and its importance in the bond market. Read More
29/01/2024 A macroeconomic approach to investing, with Fulcrum’s Chief Research Officer Fulcrum’s Chief Research Officer Juan Antolin-Diaz joins J.P. Morgan’s Market Matters Podcast series. Read More
05/01/2024 2023 Review and 2024 Outlook The outlook for the global economy over the next 12-18 months Read More
20/07/2023 Hymans Robertson Podcast – Capital markets mid-year update A discussion of the key market events of 2023 so far, a look at what the rest of the year might hold, and a discussion on the potential risks that could knock things off course in the short term. Read More
06/06/2023 Podcast – Money Life looking at if the stock market has gotten ahead of itself Paul Seaton, thinks that persistent inflation and a potential recession leave the equity markets vulnerable during the second half of 2023. Read More
12/05/2023 Podcast: Macro Hive Series on Inflation, Asset Allocation and ChatGPT In this Macro Hive Podcast series, our Chairman, Gavyn Davies, discusses a number of topics including asset allocation; ChatGPT; current market Views; and changes to investment approach since COVID. Read More
19/04/2023 Podcast: Behind the Balance Sheet In this Behind the Balance Sheet Podcast, our Chairman, Gavyn Davies, talks about investing, and about financial services; but also covers public service broadcasting, streaming and politics. Read More
17/03/2023 Square Mile – A Spotlight On: Investing in alternatives Now, with cash and bonds looking more attractive, has the role of alternatives become redundant? Read More
31/01/2023 Fulcrum’s Investment Process Explained An overview of Fulcrum Asset Management, Fulcrum’s investment committee and process. Read More
31/01/2023 An introduction with Fulcrum’s investment team Chief Investment Officer, Suhail Shaikh talks briefly through Fulcrum’s investment team and how it employs deep macro research as part of the overall investment process. Read More
17/02/2022 Podcast: The Money Maze In this Money Maze Podcast, our Chairman, Gavyn Davies, discusses why the inflationary pressures of today aren’t quite comparable to the 1970s… Read More
