Fulcrum’s US economic activity nowcast

This chart shows the results of Fulcrum’s US economic activity nowcast, which is based on a Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model including a range of macroeconomic indicators, both hard and survey-based. Activity estimates are presented as annualised rates. The solid blue line represents the median estimate for current activity and the dotted line shows the long-term growth. The blue and light green bands represent the 68% and 90% confidence intervals, respectively, for the current activity estimate.