Recorded at 9.15 a.m. in London on Friday 10th July
In this “Fireside Chat,” Gavyn Davies, Founder and Executive Chairman and Andy Bevan, Partner and Economic Advisor, discuss the following:
- The global economy at mid-year is in robust shape, growing at an annualised rate of about 2.5% despite the negative effect on confidence of the Iran war
- Fulcrum’s nowcast model shows the US slowing slightly in the service sector since the beginning of the year, but growing close to long-term trend overall with very low probability risk of recession
- Our central case for oil is consistent with a benign outlook for US inflation – alternative scenarios remain consistent with year-over-year headline PCE inflation having already peaked
- The macroeconomic backdrop is still supportive of equities – we remain mindful of the risk of the market being over-extended, but the recent pullback has unwound some of the overbought condition arising from crowded positioning in memory stocks
- Fed Chair Warsh will have scope to elaborate his views on monetary policy in his semi-annual testimony to Congress next week, including the impact of AI on inflation
This content is provided for informational purposes and is directed to clients and eligible counterparties as defined in Directive 2011/61/EU (AIFMD) and Directive 2014/65/EU (MiFID II) Annex II Section I or Section II or an investor with an equivalent status as defined by your local jurisdiction. Fulcrum Asset Management LLP (“Fulcrum”) does not produce independent Investment Research and any content disseminated is not prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such should be deemed as marketing communications. This document is also considered to be a minor non-monetary (‘MNMB’) benefit under Directive 2014/65/EU on Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (‘MiFID II’) which transposed into UK domestic law under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended). Fulcrum defines MNMBs as documentation relating to a financial instrument or an investment service which is generic in nature and may be simultaneously made available to any investment firm wishing to receive it or to the general public. The following information may have been disseminated in conferences, seminars and other training events on the benefits and features of a specific financial instrument or an investment service provided by Fulcrum.
Any views and opinions expressed are for informational and/or similarly educational purposes only and are a reflection of the author’s best judgment, based upon information available at the time obtained from sources believed to be reliable and providing information in good faith, but no responsibility is accepted for any errors or omissions. Charts and graphs provided herein are for illustrative purposes only. The information contained herein is only as current as of the date indicated, and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Some of the statements may be forward-looking statements or statements of future expectations based on the currently available information. Accordingly, such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. For example, factors such as the development of macroeconomic conditions, future market conditions, unusual catastrophic loss events, changes in the capital markets and other circumstances may cause the actual events or results to be materially different from those anticipated by such statements. In no case whatsoever will Fulcrum be liable to anyone for any decision made or action taken in conjunction with the information and/or statements in this press release or for any related damages. Reproduction of this material in whole or in part is strictly prohibited without prior written permission of Fulcrum Copyright © Fulcrum Asset Management LLP 2026. All rights reserved.
FC1866 100726
