Recorded at 9:00 a.m. in London on Friday 17th April
In this “Fireside Chat,” Gavyn Davies, Founder and Executive Chairman and Andy Bevan, Partner and Economic Advisor, discuss the following:
- The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed while talks and the ceasefire continue in the background
- Oil prices remain high, with prices for physical delivery and for refined products implying a much bigger impact than nearby oil futures contracts
- Both the Dallas Fed and the IMF have published scenario analysis
- Our outlook for oil prices is similar to the path projected by the Dallas Fed to be consistent with the closure of the Strait for two quarters
- Our inflation forecast shows headline PCE inflation in the US reaching a peak of 3.7% – the inflation swap market is at the upper end of consensus forecasts for coming months, but medium-term expectations remain well-anchored
- The US equity market has rebounded strongly in April to post a small gain for the year despite the adverse oil shock as robust economic growth, underpinned by AI-optimism, has boosted risk appetite
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