Recorded at 10:00 a.m. in London on Friday 24th April
In this “Fireside Chat,” Gavyn Davies, Founder and Executive Chairman and Andy Bevan, Partner and Economic Advisor, discuss the following:
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz implies loss of roughly 14% of oil supply probably for another month
- A lengthy period before full normalisation will likely imply oil prices remaining above what is priced into the forward market for much of this year
- The oil price shock is reducing demand to keep the market in equilibrium in the short-term – “demand destruction” could come from a deeper recessionary impact
- The inflation impulse across the major economies is greater than the negative GDP effect, with both effects smaller in the US than in Europe and Japan
- Our NLP models highlight some shift in a hawkish direction in recent Fed and ECB commentary, more pronounced in the latter
- Kevin Warsh’s testimony indicates a less dovish stance on interest rates for now than previously, with emphasis on structural reforms including a smaller balance sheet and a new “Treasury-Fed Accord” for the longer-term
This content is provided for informational purposes and is directed to clients and eligible counterparties as defined in Directive 2011/61/EU (AIFMD) and Directive 2014/65/EU (MiFID II) Annex II Section I or Section II or an investor with an equivalent status as defined by your local jurisdiction. Fulcrum Asset Management LLP (“Fulcrum”) does not produce independent Investment Research and any content disseminated is not prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such should be deemed as marketing communications. This document is also considered to be a minor non-monetary (‘MNMB’) benefit under Directive 2014/65/EU on Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (‘MiFID II’) which transposed into UK domestic law under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended). Fulcrum defines MNMBs as documentation relating to a financial instrument or an investment service which is generic in nature and may be simultaneously made available to any investment firm wishing to receive it or to the general public. The following information may have been disseminated in conferences, seminars and other training events on the benefits and features of a specific financial instrument or an investment service provided by Fulcrum.
Any views and opinions expressed are for informational and/or similarly educational purposes only and are a reflection of the author’s best judgment, based upon information available at the time obtained from sources believed to be reliable and providing information in good faith, but no responsibility is accepted for any errors or omissions. Charts and graphs provided herein are for illustrative purposes only. The information contained herein is only as current as of the date indicated, and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Some of the statements may be forward-looking statements or statements of future expectations based on the currently available information. Accordingly, such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. For example, factors such as the development of macroeconomic conditions, future market conditions, unusual catastrophic loss events, changes in the capital markets and other circumstances may cause the actual events or results to be materially different from those anticipated by such statements. In no case whatsoever will Fulcrum be liable to anyone for any decision made or action taken in conjunction with the information and/or statements in this press release or for any related damages. Reproduction of this material in whole or in part is strictly prohibited without prior written permission of Fulcrum Copyright © Fulcrum Asset Management LLP 2026. All rights reserved.
FC1767 240426
