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News

11/11/2024

Fulcrum set to launch WS Fulcrum Diversified Private Markets LTAF

01/10/2024

Fulcrum Asset Management adds Bridges Fund Management to Illiquid Specialist Panel for…

17/09/2024

Fulcrum Asset Management selects Domain Timber Advisors to LTAF panel

09/07/2024

Fulcrum builds out its Quantitative Investment Strategies team with two new hires

04/10/2023

Fulcrum Asset Management named to Newsweek’s list of the Top 100 Most…

21/09/2023

Federal Reserve Bank of NY incorporates Fulcrum Asset Management insights in its…

10/08/2023

Fulcrum completes climate-alignment of strategic equity allocation

27/07/2023

Fulcrum Asset Management announces senior hires to investment team

14/06/2023

Fulcrum taps veteran business development executive to cover North American institutional market

13/06/2023

Two strategic advisers added to Fulcrum’s Alternative Solutions team

03/03/2023

Lisa Gordon joins Fulcrum’s Management Board

02/03/2023

Fulcrum wins best ESG Investment Fund (Climate-Alignment) at 2023 ESG Investing Awards

19/01/2023

Fulcrum appoints Australia head to bolster growth strategy

07/07/2022

Fulcrum appoints Joe Davidson to Managing Partner

Uncertainty reigns

Powell and Trump “puts” in doubt

On the Horizon – March 2025

In defence of Europe

Deeper Dive: Trump’s plan for a sovereign wealth fund

On the Horizon – February 2025

Surprising resilience in the EU

Exceptional America

Trump’s Tariffs – A Challenge to the Global Economic Order and to Orthodox Economics

On the Horizon – January 2025

Tariffs: Hawks and Doves in the White House

Deeper Dive- Trump’s tariffs: revenue, restriction and reciprocation

Implementing a market-neutral strategy through thematic investing

Unlocking AI’s power in finance with Fawaz Chaudhry

Q3 2024 Investment Update

Gradual Powell – but Trump lies in wait

Harris “debate win” may not be enough

Deeper Dive: China at the third plenum

Deeper Dive: The fiscal crisis in Brazil

Insights from Fulcrum’s 20th Anniversary: Navigating Global Dynamics

Q2 2024 Investment Update

Deeper Dive: Strains in the Fifth Republic

Deeper Dive: R star and the bond market

A macroeconomic approach to investing, with Fulcrum’s Chief Research Officer

2023 Review and 2024 Outlook

Hymans Robertson Podcast – Capital markets mid-year update

Podcast – Money Life looking at if the stock market has gotten ahead of itself

Podcast: Macro Hive Series on Inflation, Asset Allocation and ChatGPT

Podcast: Behind the Balance Sheet

Square Mile – A Spotlight On: Investing in alternatives

Fulcrum’s Investment Process Explained

An introduction with Fulcrum’s investment team

Podcast: The Money Maze

Gavyn Davies

15/01/2025

Trump’s tariffs – a challenge to the global economic order and to orthodox economics

The Trump administration’s prospective tariff policies, though not without historical precedent, signify a pivotal inflection point in US trade and economic strategy, reflecting a combination of economic protectionism and evolving geopolitical ambitions.

21/03/2024

One dot makes the difference

Gavyn’s instant view of the Fed’s recent decisions and guidance

24/01/2024

Central banks say there is “no rush” as no landing risk rises

Markets have shifted slightly away from a soft-landing scenario for the US and global economies

16/01/2024

US corporate sector remains in a strong financial condition

Andy Bevan, Fulcrum’s Economic Advisor and fixed income specialist, has prepared this note on the financial condition of the US corporate sector.

09/01/2024

The impact of the Taiwanese presidential election on geopolitical risk

Global asset markets have entered the new year continuing to anticipate a soft landing in the US, involving significant reductions in policy rates in the major advanced economies, excluding Japan.

19/12/2023

What caused the Fed’s sudden lurch towards a dovish bias?

Global asset markets have moved dramatically towards a soft landing in the US, and this has dragged other developed markets in the same direction

24/11/2023

The rising importance of financial conditions for Fed policy

Global asset markets have increased the probability attached to a soft landing, at least in the US, over the past month

13/11/2023

US recession risks – The Fulcrum and Sahm Models

Global asset markets have been heavily influenced in recent weeks by four important public statements

24/10/2023

Why Did Powell Change His Guidance?

Markets have recently been navigating significant changes in news flow, involving geopolitical risks

11/10/2023

The Fed’s latest thinking on R* and the Term Premium

The performance of asset markets since the end of July has been dominated by a very large up-trend in real bond yields, with some sell-off in equity prices.

17/08/2023

Yellen Reforms and GDPNow Raise US growth optimism

In the last edition of this series, we suggested that growth in the global economy might be slowing down, led by weakness in the EU and China.

26/07/2023

Advanced Economies Slowing?

Flash PMI releases for the advanced economies in July indicate that service sectors are now generally slowing down, but there are encouraging signs that US manufacturing may be stabilising after months of weakness.

19/07/2023

North Atlantic Drift

There are increasingly convincing signs of declining headline and core inflation in the US, while the labour market remains very robust and recession risks appear to be falling further.

12/07/2023

Renewed Bond Sell-Off Driven by Continued Strength in US Labour Market

Global bond yields rose significantly in most government markets last week. US yields are now close to 15-year highs.

05/07/2023

New Fed Research Suggests That US Economic Slowdown is Likely in 2023 H2

The US economy has continued to defy those who have been predicting an imminent recession.

28/06/2023

Equities in 2023- a tougher second half, especially in the EU?

Equity markets have dipped slightly in recent days, but only after surging in mid-June above any levels seen since the major bear phase took hold in 2022.

22/06/2023

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Regimes After the Pandemic

We are receiving questions about the future of the monetary and policy regimes after the pandemic shocks, as well as the impact of any changes in these regimes on financial markets.

07/06/2023

Markets remain in a supply-friendly regime

Sell in May and go away” is a tired old cliché among investment managers, but that does not automatically make it wrong. Will it prove correct this year?

25/04/2022

Global markets driven by a huge real monetary shock

Markets have continued to be driven by major macro-economic shocks in April.

30/03/2022

Has the FED abandoned its average inflation target?

After years of deliberation, the new framework was introduced in 2020 to cope with the dominant problem faced in the previous decade.

31/01/2022

Fiscal Policy, Inflation and the Federal Reserve

The outlook for global financial markets in 2022 will obviously hinge greatly on the behaviour of inflation, especially in the US.

06/01/2022

The pandemic has marked a turning point for asset markets

In coming years, asset allocators will need to be much more active when macro shocks occur and will need to work far harder to preserve absolute returns for their clients.

11/01/2021

Bitcoin has ambitions for gold’s role

Investors in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have enjoyed a phenomenal run, but they are now worried that Janet Yellen’s arrival as US Treasury secretary may herald a new era of hostility from regulators and central banks towards what boosters call “libertarian” forms of digital money.

18/12/2020

The risks of the global Covid debt bridge

Early in the Covid-19 pandemic, it became clear that the global economy would require a massive extension of public and private debt to avoid an extraordinarily deep and persistent depression.

15/12/2020

As Covid optimism grows, investors seek to hedge against inflation risk

Economic forecasters have been scrambling since mid-year to upgrade their real GDP growth projections once the current waves of the virus are controlled.

16/11/2020

Democracies that failed the Covid test will struggle on climate change

The second wave of the pandemic continues to gather pace in Europe and the United States, but the optimistic news about vaccines has trumped these worries in the minds of investors.

06/10/2020

Global goods sector drives economic recovery

The spectacular V-shaped recovery in the global economy has probably now come to an end with much more normal growth to follow.

22/09/2020

Expect long-term economic scarring from Covid-19

As winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, new Covid-19 infections — which are feared to rise in cold weather — continue their inexorable worldwide march.

09/09/2020

The Fed risks higher inflation to boost jobs

The new framework for US monetary policy announced at the Jackson Hole symposium in August is a watershed event, for both the practice of macroeconomic policy, and the theory that lies behind it.

20/07/2020

US Covid-19 surge could trigger a double-dip recession

The relentless rise in the number of new US Covid-19 infections, which is being followed by increased hospitalisation rates and fatalities in the worst affected states, suggests that Anthony Fauci of the White House coronavirus task force was justified when he recently described the deteriorating situation as a “perfect storm”.

14/07/2020

Central banks expand their role to address the crisis

Before the economic crash caused by the coronavirus pandemic in March, it had been widely assumed that central banks would be largely impotent in the face of a renewed recession.

24/06/2020

The safe-asset shortage after Covid-19

One of the long-term consequences of the 2008 financial crisis was a lack of safe assets that could be used by institutions to store their wealth, meet regulatory requirements and provide collateral to borrow additional funds.

23/06/2020

Will public debt be a problem when the Covid-19 crisis is over?

There is unanimity about macroeconomic policy for now, but not about an exit strategy.

06/06/2020

The effects of Covid-19 could deepen secular stagnation

On top of these deflationary trends, the Covid-19 lockdowns have caused a seismic shock in all the big economies.

26/05/2020

Penny-pinching consumers could spell trouble for recovery

Attempting to make sense of this recession right now is like peering though a thick fog.

19/03/2025

Global bond yields: unravelling the drivers of recent volatility

Global bond yields rose sharply from September 2024 to January 2025, driven mainly by higher term premia – the extra return investors require for holding longer-term bonds. Since then, roughly half of this increase has reversed as term premia have declined.

10/02/2025

Navigating Real Asset uncertainty and opportunity: our 2025 outlook

With the onset of Trump 2.0 and its hawkish foreign policy, anticipated trade tariffs are expected to significantly impact global economies and markets. This analysis focuses on the potential effects on listed and unlisted Real Assets, including Infrastructure, Real Estate, and Natural Resources.

15/01/2025

Trump’s tariffs – a challenge to the global economic order and to orthodox economics

13/01/2025

Inside the Mind of a Macro Manager: Navigating an Election, a Case Study

In 2002, the US Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, popularised the terms “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns” in reference to the investigation around the supply of weapons of mass destruction.

07/01/2025

Investing in decarbonisation enablers

Climate change, one of the most significant challenges of our time, is also a powerful driver of innovation and economic transformation. As global awareness and regulatory pressure to combat climate change have intensified, demand for solutions that reduce carbon emissions and support sustainable practices has surged.

04/11/2024

A new approach for systematic strategies

Traditional systematic investment strategies often struggle to adapt to changing market conditions and shifts in the economic environment. This note introduces MARS (Macro Allocation and Risk System), a framework based on Bayesian statistics and modern macroeconomics

04/11/2024

Inside the Mind of a Macro Manager: Navigating the US Presidential Election

In recent weeks, clients have been keen to understand our portfolio positioning in advance of the US election. While the eventual outcome remains highly uncertain, with opinion polls and election probabilities oscillating regularly, this event has the potential to challenge the robustness of even the most disciplined investment process.

25/10/2024

“Adverse Selection” in private markets – bias or benefit?

Many institutional investors (e.g., wealth managers, master trusts etc.) are facing intense cost competition and are having to innovate their way through the challenge when allocating to (particularly private market, less liquid) alternative assets.

10/04/2024

Integrating sustainability considerations in Alternative Solutions

Setting out our aims to help our clients meet their sustainability objectives.

08/04/2024

Key areas of consideration when selecting an LTAF for DC Pension Schemes

With recent discussion surrounding LTAFs , we created this ‘handbook’ style article to outline some important areas

01/09/2023

Dynamic allocation is vital in times of macroeconomic uncertainty

It is well known that diversification reduces portfolio risk and improves investment outcomes.

04/07/2023

How much cash should a long-term portfolio hold?

At a time when financial markets are volatile and interest rates are rising, cash has greater appeal than it has done for some time.

03/07/2023

Has there been enough consolidation in the pensions industry?

We think it is important to examine, perhaps in a more abstract way than is common, the extent to which this trend should continue.

30/05/2023

Why scope-free emissions don’t stack up

Data quality and potential double-counting of emissions are common challenges cited by investors aiming to measure and/or reduce their value-chain (or ‘Scope 3’) emissions associated with investments.

11/05/2023

Proxy battles

As the proxy season continues, we aim to hold companies accountable for their performance on key sustainability and governance issues.

14/03/2023

Adjusting the resolution: reflections on the 2022 proxy season

Going beyond procedural problems such as appointing of auditors and the issuance of shares, topics such as ending fossil fuel financing, conducting a ‘racial equity audit’ or quantifying the monetary benefits of diversity initiatives are increasingly present on the ballot.

22/02/2023

Buying is good, building is better

The investment required to reach net zero is vast.

17/01/2023

A new world: private market innovation for DC

Back in 2020, with interest rates still at historically low levels, the Productive Finance Working Group was convened to find a way forward for UK pension savers to be able to more easily invest in long-term illiquid assets.

21/11/2022

Sustainability: Now, Never or When?

As an industry, we have lots of ideas on how to approach the challenge of ESG integration when it comes to investing in equities over the long run.

20/10/2022

The role of short-selling

There are three main approaches to integrating sustainability in a portfolio: namely Exclusion, Scoring and Thematic.

23/09/2022

Stars aligning for portfolio alignment

Amid the current market and geopolitical turmoil, one of the few ‘green’ linings has been the renewed political determination to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy and away from fossil fuels.

19/04/2022

Performance fees in DC – the agency problem

We recently conducted a poll on LinkedIn surveying whether DC savers should pay performance fees.

23/03/2022

Proxy Preview: Fulcrum’s votes at key AGMs this season

Scrutiny of the environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance of companies has never been higher, and a growing number of investors are using their voting rights to hold companies to account.

21/02/2022

The tracking error error: why climate alignment calls for bolder steps

We explore the trade-offs between tracking error, forward and backward-looking climate metrics in the context of portfolio alignment.

17/02/2022

Low temperature and low regret? The trade-offs and opportunities when bringing climate change factors into a risk-return framework

Trade-offs lie at the heart of investing; the preference of more risk-averse investors for the stability of bonds relative to more volatile, but potentially more profitable equities is one classic example.

24/01/2022

Counting down carbon: Higher share prices through lower emissions

In this post, we look more closely at the factor that this research has found to have the highest upside across all sectors – addressing CO2 emissions.

07/12/2021

Using ESG data for real-world impact

Demand for environmental, social and governance (ESG) data and tools continues to grow, with tailwinds from changing investor preferences, as well as regulation.

25/11/2021

Ready, Set, Glasgow: What does the COP26 climate conference mean for investors?

We offer some of our key take-aways on the implications of COP26 for investors.

19/11/2021

‘The Great Reversal’ – Is it upon us?

Despite a modest uptick in recent months, government bond yields remain incredibly low and, in many cases, negative.

08/06/2021

Equity Dispersion – the Greeks

Equity dispersion trading allows investors to capture the correlation risk premium embedded in equity indices and revolves around selling index volatility and buying single stock volatility.

08/06/2021

A few thoughts on Dispersion weighting schemes

There are two weighting schemes that dispersion investors focus on, namely theta and vega neutral.

08/03/2021

Addressing the ESG conundrum in a reflationary scenario

During our daily scan of the financial news recently we noticed the clever (or coincidental) juxtaposition of two stories: one profiled an endowment that has recently decided to exclude fossil fuels from their portfolio and the other, which could be considered to lie in opposition, highlighted the increasing risks associated with reflation.

11/12/2020

Strategy Cycles, Mania and the Lessons for ESG Funds

We hosted a webinar discussing the concept of Strategy Cycles in more detail on 2 December 2020.

10/10/2020

Designing a UK DC Default Fund – The choice of active vs passive across asset classes

Whilst there are some prominent exceptions, in recent years we have observed that much of the growth being experienced in DC defaults (including Master Trusts as well as Corporate schemes) has been invested in passive/index tracking investments.

15/01/2024

A summary: carbon-transition risk and net-zero portfolios

With more than $100 trillion of global assets now under a net zero, are decarbonisation efforts reflected in market pricing?

11/09/2023

Carbon-transition risk and net-zero portfolios

Net-zero portfolios (NZP), which aim to reduce carbon footprint exposure to zero by a target date, are becoming a popular vehicle to align investors’ incentives with climate scenarios.

07/09/2023

US interest rate surprises and currency returns

Currencies that are more exposed to US monetary policy yield positive average excess returns.

01/01/2021

Currency mispricing and dealer balance sheets

We find dealer-level evidence that recent regulation on the leverage ratio requirement causes deviations from covered interest parity.

01/01/2021

Unconventional monetary policy and the portfolio choice of international mutual funds

This paper analyses how unconventional monetary policy by the major central banks in developed markets affects the geographical portfolio choice of international mutual fund managers.

03/04/2019

OTC Premia Paper

Using unique data at transaction and identity levels, we provide the first systematic study of interest rate swaps traded over the counter (OTC).

01/10/2018

Narrative Sign Restrictions for SVARs

We identify structural vector autoregressions using narrative sign restrictions.

01/05/2017

Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP growth

Using a dynamic factor model that allows for changes in both the long-run growth rate of output and the volatility of business cycles, we document a significant decline in long-run output growth in the United States.

Authors: Andrew Bevan, Gavyn Davies, Dan Wales, Gianluca Benigno, Griffin Tory, Fawaz Chaudhry, Shiwen Gao, CFA, James English, Helen Roughsedge, Rahil Ram, Juan Antolin-Diaz, Justin Simler, Suhail Shaikh, Matthew Roberts, Samriddhi Sharma, David Merton, Gino Cenedese, Shangqi Han, Marcin Kacperczky, Lucio Sarno, Paul Seaton, Angus Carson, Chris Gower, Stephen Crewe, Pasquale Della Corte, Tianyu Wang, Ilaf Elard, Angelo Ranaldo, Michalis Vasios, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, Thomas Drechsel, Ivan Petrella

21/03/2025

Uncertainty reigns

The Fed left interest rates unchanged amid uncertainty.

19/03/2025

Global bond yields: unravelling the drivers of recent volatility

14/03/2025

Powell and Trump “puts” in doubt

Recent market turbulence is linked to economic uncertainty.

11/03/2025

On the Horizon – March 2025

Higher tariffs likely to drive stagflation in the US.

28/02/2025

In defence of Europe

In this “Fireside Chat”, Gavyn Davies, Founder and Executive Chairman and Dan Wales, Director, Economic Research, discuss the following: Germany’s…

18/02/2025

Deeper Dive: Trump’s plan for a sovereign wealth fund

President Trump has proposed the creation of a large US sovereign wealth fund (SWF), partly funded by tariff revenue.

10/02/2025

Navigating Real Asset uncertainty and opportunity: our 2025 outlook

07/02/2025

On the Horizon – February 2025

DeepSeek’s R1 model significantly reduces AI training costs.

07/02/2025

Surprising resilience in the EU

The euro’s weakness is largely influenced by US economic factors.

23/01/2025

Exceptional America

US economic growth continues to outpace other countries.

17/01/2025

Trump’s Tariffs – A Challenge to the Global Economic Order and to Orthodox Economics

Gavyn Davies answers recent client questions, including global responses to Trump tariffs and potential economic impacts and broader implications of tariffs on policy and markets.

15/01/2025

Trump’s tariffs – a challenge to the global economic order and to orthodox economics

14/01/2025

On the Horizon – January 2025

Cautious Equities: stretched S&P 500 valuations and heavy tech capex with delayed revenues.

13/01/2025

Inside the Mind of a Macro Manager: Navigating an Election, a Case Study

09/01/2025

Tariffs: Hawks and Doves in the White House

President Trump’s economic team are united behind the need for higher tariff.

07/01/2025

Investing in decarbonisation enablers

02/01/2025

Deeper Dive- Trump’s tariffs: revenue, restriction and reciprocation

The potential economic impacts of tariffs include lower growth and higher inflation.

03/12/2024

Implementing a market-neutral strategy through thematic investing

During their time together, Jock and Fawaz talk about how Fawaz’s team implements its market-neutral approach, as well as the team’s process for identifying opportunities and evolving themes.

27/11/2024

Unlocking AI’s power in finance with Fawaz Chaudhry

In this episode of Trading Tomorrow, we explore the groundbreaking ways artificial intelligence is reshaping finance with insights from Fawaz Chaudhry, the Head of Equities.

04/11/2024

Q3 2024 Investment Update

The market events and trends that have dominated in Q3 and the impact these had on performance.

11/10/2024

Gradual Powell – but Trump lies in wait

The market is now pricing in higher rates than before for the middle of 2025, reflecting a more robust labour market.

13/09/2024

Harris “debate win” may not be enough

The US presidential race is tight, with polls showing narrow margins.

19/07/2024

Deeper Dive: China at the third plenum

The Third Plenum sets out the policy direction for China for the next five years.

12/07/2024

Deeper Dive: The fiscal crisis in Brazil

Brazil has experienced recent volatility in its markets, including a weaker currency.

11/07/2024

Insights from Fulcrum’s 20th Anniversary: Navigating Global Dynamics

Recorded during Fulcrum’s 20th-anniversary event, Gavyn Davies, and Stephanie Flanders, debate some of the major topics that are likely to impact the financial markets over the coming months/years.

10/07/2024

Q2 2024 Investment Update

The trends driving performance in Q2 and outlook going into the second half of the year.

21/06/2024

Deeper Dive: Strains in the Fifth Republic

The upcoming elections in France have the potential to significantly impact markets and test EU structures.

18/04/2024

Deeper Dive: R star and the bond market

The concept of R-star, the equilibrium interest rate, and its importance in the bond market.

10/04/2024

Integrating sustainability considerations in Alternative Solutions

Setting out our aims to help our clients meet their sustainability objectives.

08/04/2024

Key areas of consideration when selecting an LTAF for DC Pension Schemes

With recent discussion surrounding LTAFs , we created this ‘handbook’ style article to outline some important areas

21/03/2024

One dot makes the difference

Gavyn’s instant view of the Fed’s recent decisions and guidance

29/01/2024

A macroeconomic approach to investing, with Fulcrum’s Chief Research Officer

Fulcrum’s Chief Research Officer Juan Antolin-Diaz joins J.P. Morgan’s Market Matters Podcast series.

24/01/2024

Central banks say there is “no rush” as no landing risk rises

Markets have shifted slightly away from a soft-landing scenario for the US and global economies

16/01/2024

US corporate sector remains in a strong financial condition

Andy Bevan, Fulcrum’s Economic Advisor and fixed income specialist, has prepared this note on the financial condition of the US corporate sector.

15/01/2024

A summary: carbon-transition risk and net-zero portfolios

With more than $100 trillion of global assets now under a net zero, are decarbonisation efforts reflected in market pricing?

09/01/2024

The impact of the Taiwanese presidential election on geopolitical risk

Global asset markets have entered the new year continuing to anticipate a soft landing in the US, involving significant reductions in policy rates in the major advanced economies, excluding Japan.

05/01/2024

2023 Review and 2024 Outlook

The outlook for the global economy over the next 12-18 months

19/12/2023

What caused the Fed’s sudden lurch towards a dovish bias?

Global asset markets have moved dramatically towards a soft landing in the US, and this has dragged other developed markets in the same direction

24/11/2023

The rising importance of financial conditions for Fed policy

Global asset markets have increased the probability attached to a soft landing, at least in the US, over the past month

13/11/2023

US recession risks – The Fulcrum and Sahm Models

Global asset markets have been heavily influenced in recent weeks by four important public statements

24/10/2023

Why Did Powell Change His Guidance?

Markets have recently been navigating significant changes in news flow, involving geopolitical risks

11/10/2023

The Fed’s latest thinking on R* and the Term Premium

The performance of asset markets since the end of July has been dominated by a very large up-trend in real bond yields, with some sell-off in equity prices.

11/09/2023

Carbon-transition risk and net-zero portfolios

Net-zero portfolios (NZP), which aim to reduce carbon footprint exposure to zero by a target date, are becoming a popular vehicle to align investors’ incentives with climate scenarios.

07/09/2023

US interest rate surprises and currency returns

Currencies that are more exposed to US monetary policy yield positive average excess returns.

01/09/2023

Dynamic allocation is vital in times of macroeconomic uncertainty

It is well known that diversification reduces portfolio risk and improves investment outcomes.

17/08/2023

Yellen Reforms and GDPNow Raise US growth optimism

In the last edition of this series, we suggested that growth in the global economy might be slowing down, led by weakness in the EU and China.

26/07/2023

Advanced Economies Slowing?

20/07/2023

Hymans Robertson Podcast – Capital markets mid-year update

A discussion of the key market events of 2023 so far, a look at what the rest of the year might hold, and a discussion on the potential risks that could knock things off course in the short term.

19/07/2023

North Atlantic Drift

There are increasingly convincing signs of declining headline and core inflation in the US, while the labour market remains very robust and recession risks appear to be falling further.

12/07/2023

Renewed Bond Sell-Off Driven by Continued Strength in US Labour Market

Global bond yields rose significantly in most government markets last week. US yields are now close to 15-year highs.

05/07/2023

New Fed Research Suggests That US Economic Slowdown is Likely in 2023 H2

The US economy has continued to defy those who have been predicting an imminent recession.

04/07/2023

How much cash should a long-term portfolio hold?

At a time when financial markets are volatile and interest rates are rising, cash has greater appeal than it has done for some time.

03/07/2023

Has there been enough consolidation in the pensions industry?

We think it is important to examine, perhaps in a more abstract way than is common, the extent to which this trend should continue.

28/06/2023

Equities in 2023- a tougher second half, especially in the EU?

Equity markets have dipped slightly in recent days, but only after surging in mid-June above any levels seen since the major bear phase took hold in 2022.

22/06/2023

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Regimes After the Pandemic

We are receiving questions about the future of the monetary and policy regimes after the pandemic shocks, as well as the impact of any changes in these regimes on financial markets.

07/06/2023

Markets remain in a supply-friendly regime

Sell in May and go away” is a tired old cliché among investment managers, but that does not automatically make it wrong. Will it prove correct this year?

06/06/2023

Podcast – Money Life looking at if the stock market has gotten ahead of itself

Paul Seaton, thinks that persistent inflation and a potential recession leave the equity markets vulnerable during the second half of 2023.

12/05/2023

Podcast: Macro Hive Series on Inflation, Asset Allocation and ChatGPT

In this Macro Hive Podcast series, our Chairman, Gavyn Davies, discusses a number of topics including asset allocation; ChatGPT; current market Views; and changes to investment approach since COVID.

19/04/2023

Podcast: Behind the Balance Sheet

In this Behind the Balance Sheet Podcast, our Chairman, Gavyn Davies, talks about investing, and about financial services; but also covers public service broadcasting, streaming and politics.

17/03/2023

Square Mile – A Spotlight On: Investing in alternatives

Now, with cash and bonds looking more attractive, has the role of alternatives become redundant?

22/02/2023

Buying is good, building is better

The investment required to reach net zero is vast.

31/01/2023

Fulcrum’s Investment Process Explained

An overview of Fulcrum Asset Management, Fulcrum’s investment committee and process.

31/01/2023

An introduction with Fulcrum’s investment team

Chief Investment Officer, Suhail Shaikh talks briefly through Fulcrum’s investment team and how it employs deep macro research as part of the overall investment process.

17/01/2023

A new world: private market innovation for DC

21/11/2022

Sustainability: Now, Never or When?

As an industry, we have lots of ideas on how to approach the challenge of ESG integration when it comes to investing in equities over the long run.

20/10/2022

The role of short-selling

There are three main approaches to integrating sustainability in a portfolio: namely Exclusion, Scoring and Thematic.

25/04/2022

Global markets driven by a huge real monetary shock

Markets have continued to be driven by major macro-economic shocks in April.

19/04/2022

Performance fees in DC – the agency problem

We recently conducted a poll on LinkedIn surveying whether DC savers should pay performance fees.

30/03/2022

Has the FED abandoned its average inflation target?

After years of deliberation, the new framework was introduced in 2020 to cope with the dominant problem faced in the previous decade.

21/02/2022

The tracking error error: why climate alignment calls for bolder steps

We explore the trade-offs between tracking error, forward and backward-looking climate metrics in the context of portfolio alignment.

17/02/2022

Low temperature and low regret? The trade-offs and opportunities when bringing climate change factors into a risk-return framework

17/02/2022

Podcast: The Money Maze

In this Money Maze Podcast, our Chairman, Gavyn Davies, discusses why the inflationary pressures of today aren’t quite comparable to the 1970s…

31/01/2022

Fiscal Policy, Inflation and the Federal Reserve

The outlook for global financial markets in 2022 will obviously hinge greatly on the behaviour of inflation, especially in the US.

24/01/2022

Counting down carbon: Higher share prices through lower emissions

In this post, we look more closely at the factor that this research has found to have the highest upside across all sectors – addressing CO2 emissions.

06/01/2022

The pandemic has marked a turning point for asset markets

In coming years, asset allocators will need to be much more active when macro shocks occur and will need to work far harder to preserve absolute returns for their clients.

07/12/2021

Using ESG data for real-world impact

Demand for environmental, social and governance (ESG) data and tools continues to grow, with tailwinds from changing investor preferences, as well as regulation.

25/11/2021

Ready, Set, Glasgow: What does the COP26 climate conference mean for investors?

We offer some of our key take-aways on the implications of COP26 for investors.

19/11/2021

‘The Great Reversal’ – Is it upon us?

Despite a modest uptick in recent months, government bond yields remain incredibly low and, in many cases, negative.

08/06/2021

Equity Dispersion – the Greeks

Equity dispersion trading allows investors to capture the correlation risk premium embedded in equity indices and revolves around selling index volatility and buying single stock volatility.

08/06/2021

A few thoughts on Dispersion weighting schemes

There are two weighting schemes that dispersion investors focus on, namely theta and vega neutral.

08/03/2021

Addressing the ESG conundrum in a reflationary scenario

11/01/2021

Bitcoin has ambitions for gold’s role

01/01/2021

Currency mispricing and dealer balance sheets

We find dealer-level evidence that recent regulation on the leverage ratio requirement causes deviations from covered interest parity.

01/01/2021

Unconventional monetary policy and the portfolio choice of international mutual funds

This paper analyses how unconventional monetary policy by the major central banks in developed markets affects the geographical portfolio choice of international mutual fund managers.

18/12/2020

The risks of the global Covid debt bridge

Early in the Covid-19 pandemic, it became clear that the global economy would require a massive extension of public and private debt to avoid an extraordinarily deep and persistent depression.

15/12/2020

As Covid optimism grows, investors seek to hedge against inflation risk

Economic forecasters have been scrambling since mid-year to upgrade their real GDP growth projections once the current waves of the virus are controlled.

11/12/2020

Strategy Cycles, Mania and the Lessons for ESG Funds

We hosted a webinar discussing the concept of Strategy Cycles in more detail on 2 December 2020.

16/11/2020

Democracies that failed the Covid test will struggle on climate change

The second wave of the pandemic continues to gather pace in Europe and the United States, but the optimistic news about vaccines has trumped these worries in the minds of investors.

10/10/2020

Designing a UK DC Default Fund – The choice of active vs passive across asset classes

06/10/2020

Global goods sector drives economic recovery

The spectacular V-shaped recovery in the global economy has probably now come to an end with much more normal growth to follow.

22/09/2020

Expect long-term economic scarring from Covid-19

As winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, new Covid-19 infections — which are feared to rise in cold weather — continue their inexorable worldwide march.

09/09/2020

The Fed risks higher inflation to boost jobs

The new framework for US monetary policy announced at the Jackson Hole symposium in August is a watershed event, for both the practice of macroeconomic policy, and the theory that lies behind it.

20/07/2020

US Covid-19 surge could trigger a double-dip recession

14/07/2020

Central banks expand their role to address the crisis

Before the economic crash caused by the coronavirus pandemic in March, it had been widely assumed that central banks would be largely impotent in the face of a renewed recession.

24/06/2020

The safe-asset shortage after Covid-19

23/06/2020

Will public debt be a problem when the Covid-19 crisis is over?

There is unanimity about macroeconomic policy for now, but not about an exit strategy.

06/06/2020

The effects of Covid-19 could deepen secular stagnation

On top of these deflationary trends, the Covid-19 lockdowns have caused a seismic shock in all the big economies.

26/05/2020

Penny-pinching consumers could spell trouble for recovery

Attempting to make sense of this recession right now is like peering though a thick fog.

03/04/2019

OTC Premia Paper

Using unique data at transaction and identity levels, we provide the first systematic study of interest rate swaps traded over the counter (OTC).

01/10/2018

Narrative Sign Restrictions for SVARs

We identify structural vector autoregressions using narrative sign restrictions.

01/05/2017

Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP growth

Suhail Shaikh

Chief Investment Officer

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Helen Roughsedge

Investment Director

Oyetola Oyeleye

Portfolio Manager, Volatility Strategies

Matthew Roberts

Head of Fulcrum Alternative Solutions

Matthew Wright

Global Financial Institutions

Documents

Fulcrum UCITS SICAV – EU PRIIPS additional information December 2024

Date updated:
25 March 2025

Uncertainty reigns Charts

Date updated:
21 March 2025

Fulcrum Global Bond Yields Unravelling the Drivers of Recent Volatility

Date updated:
19 March 2025

Powell and Trump “puts” in doubt Charts

Date updated:
14 March 2025

Fulcrum_In defence of Europe

Date updated:
28 February 2025

Surprising resilience in the EU

Date updated:
07 February 2025

Fulcrum – Don’t Bet the Ranch_Hit Ratios, Asymmetry and Breadth

Date updated:
29 January 2025

Fulcrum – Don’t Bet the Ranch_Practical Applications

Date updated:
29 January 2025

Fulcrum – Designing a Tail Risk Strategy

Date updated:
29 January 2025

Fulcrum – A few thoughts on Dispersion weighting schemes

Date updated:
29 January 2025

Fulcrum – Implementing a Tail Hedging Strategy

Date updated:
29 January 2025

Trump’s tariffs – a challenge to the global economic order and to orthodox economics

Date updated:
15 January 2025

A-New-Approach-for-Systematic-Strategies

Date updated:
04 December 2024

Fulcrum Income Fund – October 2024

Date updated:
15 November 2024

Fulcrum Dynamic Convexity Fund_Investor Report_2023

Date updated:
06 November 2024

Fulcrum Horizon Fund SP – Investor Report_2023

Date updated:
06 November 2024

Fulcrum Inflation Protection Strategy – Investor Report – Dec2023

Date updated:
06 November 2024

Fulcrum Energy-Infrastructure-Renewables Fund SP_Investor Report_2023

Date updated:
06 November 2024

Fulcrum – Inside the Mind of a Macro Manager Navigating the US Presidential Election

Date updated:
05 November 2024

FC505 Sustainable Investment in Alternative Solutions TP3_V3

Date updated:
04 November 2024

Don’t Bet the Ranch_Hit Ratios, Asymmetry and Breadth

Date updated:
28 October 2024

fulcrum asset management llp ifpru disclosure statement

Date updated:
25 October 2024

Principle Adverse Impact Statement

Date updated:
14 October 2024

Responsible Investment Policy

Date updated:
09 October 2024

SRD II Engagement Policy

Date updated:
09 October 2024

Conflicts of Interest Policy

Date updated:
09 October 2024

Modern Slavery Statement

Date updated:
09 October 2024

Proxy Voting Policy

Date updated:
23 September 2024

Article 4 – PAI Statement Fulcrum Diversified Absolute Return

Date updated:
15 August 2024

Article 10 – Fulcrum Diversified Absolute Return

Date updated:
15 August 2024

Fulcrum – Dont Bet the Ranch

Date updated:
08 August 2024

FULCRUM_ UK reporting fund status report to investors_2023

Date updated:
30 July 2024

remuneration-policy

Date updated:
25 July 2024

esg-risk-policy

Date updated:
25 July 2024

fulcrum-asset-management-llp-rts-28-2019

Date updated:
25 July 2024

principal-adverse-impact-statement

Date updated:
25 July 2024

prospectus-fulcrum-ucits-sicav

Date updated:
25 July 2024

article-10-disclosure-fulcrum-climate-change

Date updated:
25 July 2024

article-4-principal-adverse-impact-statement-fulcrum-climate-change-fund

Date updated:
25 July 2024

fulcrum-ucits-sicav-eu-priips-additional-information-january-2023

Date updated:
25 July 2024

srd-ii-engagement-policy

Date updated:
25 July 2024

responsible-investment-policy

Date updated:
25 July 2024

privacy-policy

Date updated:
25 July 2024

modern-slavery-statement

Date updated:
25 July 2024

diversity-equity-inclusion-statement

Date updated:
25 July 2024

conflicts-of-interest-policy

Date updated:
25 July 2024

pillar-iii-disclosure-statement-2019

Date updated:
25 July 2024

fulcrum-ucits-sicav-report-to-investors-31-december-2021

Date updated:
25 July 2024

fulcrum-ucits-sicav_-uk-reporting-fund-status-report-to-investors_2022

Date updated:
25 July 2024

fulcrum-asset-management-llp-ifpru-disclosure-statement

Date updated:
25 July 2024

240124-chairmans-views-presentation

Date updated:
24 July 2024

carbon-transition-risk-and-net-zero-portfolios

Date updated:
24 July 2024

us-interest-rate-surprises-and-currency-returns

Date updated:
24 July 2024

fulcrum-the-tracking-error-error-why-climate-alignment-calls-for-bolder-steps

Date updated:
23 July 2024

cenedese-della-corte-wang-currency-mispricing-and-dealer-balance-sheets-jf-2021

Date updated:
23 July 2024

cenedese-ranaldo-vasios-otc-premia-march-2019

Date updated:
23 July 2024

integrating-sustainability-considerations-in-alternative-solutions

Date updated:
09 August 2024

Privacy Policy September 2023 updated version (002)

Date updated:
11 July 2024

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